And, of course, Mélenchon’s much talked about defeat in Pas-de-Calais-11. The FG narrowly managed to save two open seats, in Cher-2 (28.9 vs 27 for the PS) and Bouches-du-Rhône-13 (27 vs 24.8 for the PS and 21.7 for the FN). This is the lowest first round turnout in any legislative election held in France under universal suffrage. EELV is thus placed in a fairly ironic position. Disgraced foreign minister Michèle Alliot-Marie is in trouble in the Pyrénées-Atlantiques-6 even if she came out on top in the first round with 35.4% against 31.6% for the PS. She is likely to lose, and a similar fate likely awaits another loudmouth young Sarkozyst in Meurthe-et-Moselle-2, Valérie Rosso-Debord. In Hauts-de-Seine-9, Claude Guéant, the former interior minister known for his very right-wing views, faced a local UMP dissident candidacy from Thierry Solère. Similarly, I will post my predictions (so you can laugh at them on June 18…) once I have run through each seat. Christian Vanneste, the controversial incumbent in the Nord-10 known for his homophobic statements, ran as a dissident but took only 13.2%. These elections will be the first fought under new boundaries, established in 2009 by the first redistricting since 1986. Marine Le Pen ne se cache plus derrière sa sœur. UMP 27.12% (-12.42%) winning 9 seats He also must win a lot of Urbaniak’s voters, which represent the tiny base of the UMP and the centre in this constituency. Unlike in 1981, it does not seem as if the right’s core voters were demobilized far more than the left’s core voters. The PS stands a chance at winning one or even two seats in traditionally right-wing departments such as Loiret, Savoie, Vendée, Vaucluse and the Var. While the NC has managed a face-saving performance, the same cannot be said for the MoDem. Amusingly, the last remaining MoDem ‘heartland’ is… La Réunion, where the MoDem’s Thierry Robert is the favourite in the 7th constituency on the island with weird politics. Thanks for the analysis and info! google_ad_client = "ca-pub-9171045836463060"; Indeed, its candidate won fourth place with only 13.7%. La gauche et la droite se sont partagées, dimanche 27 septembre, six sièges de députés lors du second tour des élections législatives partielles – pour lequel La République en marche n'avait pas réussi à qualifier de candidats. MRC 4 Far-right 0.19% (-0.2%) winning 0 seats, Parliamentary Left (PS+DVG+PRG+EELV+FG) 46.78% (+11.22%) winning 25 seats However, the Ministry has classified both Reiss and Leonetti as UMP candidates, so other sites which are using the Ministry’s official ‘standards’ count them as UMP winners. Two UMP candidates, including an incumbent, who placed third in the first round, have said that they are considering dropping out of their triangulaires in the FN’s favour, to prevent a PS victory. It is fairly uninteresting or unsurprising, so I feel no need to detail it out (but you can see it here) . //--> In the 93, the deal has been signed (and the PS is backing Asensi and Buffet) while Amiable has also pulled out, leaving the PS alone against the NC. The UMP is certainly aware of this fact, and, like Sarkozy in the two week runoff campaign, is going all out to get these votes. The UMP candidate won 30% of the vote, while the PS candidate, with 22%, qualified for the runoff. google_ad_height = 280; Kemel narrowly won the divisive left-wing contest against Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Marine’s sworn enemy who had come up to this constituency, thinking he could benefit from the bad climate in the local PS. Electionsite.org provides targeted and affordable advertising for advertisers. Do you have any figures of leading candidates by party? Royal and the PS barons have clamored for Falorni to bow out of the race, as tradition would usually mean. The UMP knew that it would lose the legislative elections, so its whole semblance of a campaign was a jumbled up defensive effort of saving furniture. Outside these constituencies, generous gifts from the PS, EELV candidates posted, in general, very weak performances when running against PS candidates. Only Jacqueline Fraysse (Hauts-de-Seine-4), Marie-George Buffet (Seine-Saint-Denis-4, but by only 3 points) and François Asensi (Seine-Saint-Denis-11) saved their seats in the Parisian region. Nadine Morano, the particularly distasteful attack dog of the UMP, in trouble in her own seat, has openly called on FN voters to vote for her in the runoff, citing shared political values. contact us here. Some other major results for the PS and the PRG: The leader of the UMP, Jean-François Copé, will, ultimately, not be in any trouble. All rights EELV won 5.5% overall. contact us, Australia-Victorian State Election (2018), Australia-South Australia Council Elections (2018), Bahrain-Bahraini Council Of Representatives (2018), Cuba-Cuban National Assembly Of Peoples Power (2018), India-Tamil Nadu Local Bodies Elections (2018), United States-House of Representatives (2018). It is not, however, all that surprising. ( Log Out / I have not yet done my own crunching of numbers seat by seat (given how my predictions were terrible, I doubt anybody will take my predictions seriously! Register as an Online Tutor for FREE and earn money. However, the FG candidates in all other constituencies should bow out in favour of the PS candidates. Bravo @sandraregol (Vitry Alfortville) et @draveneau1 (Saumur) ainsi qu'à Frédéric Hilbert (Colmar) qui se qualifient pour le second tour dans des législatives partielles dans un contexte difficile !Dimanche 27, faisons entrer l'écologie à l'Assemblée ! Fillon won 48.6% against 34% for Axel Kahn, a fairly high-profile PS candidate. The behaviour of FN (6.8%), EELV (3.7%) and FG voters (3.4%) will also be decisive. Connecting decision makers to a dynamic network of information, people and ideas, Bloomberg quickly and accurately delivers business and financial information, news and insight around the world. For the last two decades, candidates for the French presidency have been promising to make changes and get the French economy back and working properly again; but for the last two decades, the promises made at elections have not led to much fundamental change. However, the NC will owe almost all of its victories to the good graces of the UMP with its members (because they all proved good soldiers and had lined up behind Sarkozy without too many fits). The French National Assembly is composed of 577 members elected for five-year terms in 577 single-member constituencies. is Kader Arif, in Haute-Garonne-10, won the primary against two PS dissidents and should win handily in the runoff. However, Falorni seems quite determined to stay in the race, to Royal’s ire. She can certainly count on the backing of the 7.6% of voters who backed Frédéric Dutoit, a former PCF deputy running for the FG. ... AFP LREM a perdu son seul siège en jeu, et a échoué à se qualifier au second tour lors de ces élections législatives marquées par une abstention extrême. In a PS-FN runoff, Vauzelle is still the favourite. On June 10, she polled 34.4% against 32.5% for Muselier. Hervé Novelli, the leader of the UMP’s liberal wing, will likely lose in Indre-et-Loire-4 where the PS won 39.7% against 35.9% for him. This was Ayrault-Hollande’s goal from day one, and it appears as if they will reach it. Refund Policy, If your election for the years 2016, 2017, 2018 is not included here and you want us to add In the Bouches-du-Rhône-2, the controversial UMP mayor of Aix-en-Provence Maryse Joissains-Masini placed second with 28.5% against 35.6% for the PS. In Meurthe-et-Moselle-5, the loudmouthed UMP incumbent Nadine Morano, a particularly distasteful Sarkozyst populist, is in a tough spot. He won 33% in the first round, and will face the moderate nationalist Jean-Christophe Angelini who won a somewhat underwhelming 21.2%. A week is indeed a long time in politics, so it would be unwise to “sell the bear’s skin before killing it”. The FN won 16% in the constituency, and Copé should win handily in the runoff. Il affrontera le candidat du RN Jean-Cyril Montier (18,01%), seul qualifié au 2e tour, alors que la candidate LREM est arrivée troisième avec seulement 10,72% des suffrages. The Vosges-2 is winnable for the left, but the FN’s strength in this working-class constituency around Saint-Dié has diluted the region’s historical left-wing leanings. This is the FN’s second major hope, and is another major race to watch. However, the combined 40% for the left excluding the FG-PCF is superior to the result of the same parties in 1997 – the last left-wing victory – when these parties took 34.6% combined, or 44.5% with the PCF added. President Emmanuel Macron’s party and its allies won 350 out of 577 seats in France’s lower house, cementing a legislative majority that will easily allow him to pass his reform program. This result will likely send a chill down the spine of the PCF’s leadership, which certainly isn’t as bold or assertive as Mélenchon and the PG. Les députés sont élus au suffrage universel direct par les électeurs français inscrits sur les listes électorales. Before passing any more comments, it is quite important to point out that the results above use the etiquettes used by the Ministry of the Interior in their archaic and shady methods of classifying candidates. google_ad_client = "ca-pub-9171045836463060"; Therefore, even though the FG is qualified for the runoff against PS candidates in a good number of constituencies, the unwritten “republican tradition” should be followed this year again. I am certainly open to discussing any constituency in more detail, in whatever kind of detail is requested. If he decides to stay in the race, the PS should still be favoured in this very close contest. Pierre Moscovici, the finance minister, will need to wait until June 17 to win reelection in Doubs-4, a traditionally left-leaning seat he had gained from the right in 2007. Il affrontera au second tour l’écologiste Frédéric Hilbert, candidat EELV malheureux aux municipales à Colmar, qui a rassemblé dimanche 23,53% des voix, devançant largement le candidat RN (14,04%). What is most interesting, in my opinion, is the breakdown of non-voters by 2012 presidential vote. Traditionally, runoffs usually oppose the top two contenders. In Yvelines-3, Henri Guaino, Sarkozy’s former speechwriter and aide, placed a narrow first with only 28.1% against 25.8% for the PS and 23% for Olivier Delaporte, a right-wing dissident. When times are tough, I doubt the PCF’s apparatchiks and Politburo will think that the mélenchonien boldness allows for it. Comme au premier tour, l'abstention a de nouveau été très forte. The PCF’s only political goal since the late 1980s has been its own survival, and nothing else. In Corse-du-Sud-2, Camille de Rocca Serra, the UMP incumbent in a constituency which has long been the personal preserve of the Rocca Serra dynasty, faces a tough runoff. In Bouches-du-Rhône-5, she faced UMP incumbent and mayoral hopeful Renaud Muselier. :), Pingback: France 2012 (Legislative): Runoff « World Elections. The PS candidate is none other than Ségolène Royal, the party’s 2007 presidential candidate and a presidential contender this year again – for the presidency of the National Assembly. Bayrou’s decision to personally endorse Hollande likely lost him and his party the backing of certain centrist/centre-right voters who preferred to return to their historical ideological and partisan roots by voting for UMP candidates by the first round. Elle a oscillé entre 81 et 84% dans les circonscriptions hors Ile-de-France. He won a very strong 43.5% in the first round against 20.6% for the PS and 18.9% for the FG. The UMP candidate won 20.5%, while the FN still managed 16.3%. Centre-MoDem 1.76% (-5.85%) winning 0 seats, Ecologists 0.96% (+0.16%) winning 0 seats, Regionalists and nationalists 0.56% (+0.05%) winning 0 seats, Parliamentary Left (PS+DVG+PRG+EELV+FG) 46.78% (+11.22%) winning 25 seats, Parliamentary Right (UMP+DVD+NC+PRV+AC) 34.67% (-10.91%) winning 11 seats, The French presidency and presidential elections, Race, Ethnicity and Language in South Africa, ← Mini-Guide to the 2012 French legislative elections, http://www.liberation.fr/politiques/2012/06/08/legislatives-tous-les-resultats-du-1er-tour_824715, France 2012 (Legislative): Runoff « World Elections, Primaries, leadership contests or internal party votes. and none of them seem keen on leading a centrist reunification (besides Lagarde, but Morin would probably kill him in the process). Wauquiez is also a potential leadership and presidential contender. This year, the narrative will be of a left-wing victory but not of an obliteration of the right. Whether or not FN voters are particularly receptive to what can appear as desperation on the part of old UMP incumbents worried about their political futures is another matter. Bayrou is too proud and independent to accept his political death, but political death is the fate of the MoDem. Electionsite.org provides targeted and affordable advertising for advertisers. The FG, against all expectations, lost seven seats, placing second behind PS candidates in these seats. Mélenchon, on April 22, had been able to speak to a wider electorate than just the core PCF vote, so we should have expected a good part of Mélenchon’s voters – a good number of them being traditional PS voters – to return to their traditional home (the PS) as early as June 10. Another high-profile Socialist is in some amount of trouble. Si sa candidature avait créé quelques dissensions au sein de LR local, Yves Hemedinger, ancien premier adjoint de Gilbert Meyer, ressort largement en tête de ce premier tour avec 45,39% des voix. This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. your election in our lists, Copé won 45.1% by the first round, far ahead of the EELV candidate backed by the PS who won 29%. The FG fooled itself by believing that it could hold the bulk of this vote. Chez les écologistes, déjà galvanisés par la vague verte des municipales, la soirée a été plus heureuse, avec trois candidats qualifiés pour le second tour, mais pas forcément en tête. PRG 12, AC 1 Les élections législatives en France déterminent les représentants siégeant à la chambre basse du Parlement. Far-left 0.98% (-2.43%) winning 0 seats In the Hauts-de-Seine-1, Roland Muzeau has been defeated by the PS (32.5 vs 29.8) while in the 11th constituency, FG incumbent Marie-Hélène Amiable lost out to the PS by a very short margin (29.9 vs 29.2). //--> 47% for the left altogether by the first round – it is quite a strong result for the left. The centre, as always, finds itself dispersed. In Moselle-6, however, the FN’s Florian Philippot, Marine’s former campaign manager, was not as lucky. If your election for the years 2016, 2017, 2018 is not included here and you want us to add Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Merci @PBell_Lloch et @pcf_94https://t.co/9Uh9G5pCZL. contact us here. It is because of this deal with the PS, signed in November 2011 and which the PS is probably regretting now, that EELV stands a good chance of winning more than the 15 seats necessary to form a parliamentary group on its own. The unwritten tradition and quasi-rule in these cases is that the left-wing candidate who won the most votes benefits from the automatic withdrawal of other left-wing candidates qualified for the runoff. Change ), You are commenting using your Facebook account. François Fillon, Copé’s top rival and former Prime Minister, packed his bags and moved to Paris (2nd constituency), likely in preparation for a tough mayoral bid in the capital in 2014. Others 0.52% (-0.51%) winning 0 seats I have not yet compiled my predictions, by party, for the second round(s), but once again, the first round results are favourable to the left and everything seems to indicate that the left as a whole will easily win an absolute majority and there is a good chance that the PS and its closest allies will win more than 289 seats, the absolute majority threshold. It is hardly surprising that the MoDem, with an incomprehensible message of wanting to be neither a supporter nor an opponent, would get utterly crushed both to its left and right. I thought that her (allegedly) strong constituency work and base would pay off for her, but perhaps her over-aggressive negative image in general hurt her. Register as an Online Tutor for FREE and earn money. ;). MUP 1 François Guéant, the son of Claude Guéant, was the UMP candidate in Morbihan-4, where he won 25.8% against 26% for the Breton regionalist backed by EELV and the PS. The second round humbled the right, which, albeit saving an absolute majority without too much trouble, faced a resurgent left which conquered a significant number of constituencies. A lot of UMP candidates in tough runoff situations against the PS find themselves dependent on FN voters. DVD 12 Heading It is, on the whole, quite a disappointing result for the party, after having won 17.9% in the presidential election. If you want to have your ads on Electionsite.org website click here. I haven’t added up the totals for the number of leading candidates by party, but I suspect the left led in 300+ seats. : NC 2.20% (-0.17%) winning 1 seat In Paris-10, Denis Baupin won 43% and will easily win the runoff. Ipsos tells me that 61% of FN voters voted the way they do to oppose Hollande (like 68% of UMP voters), 74% of them do not want a left-wing majority and 72% want the right to win the elections (though not all, probably, understood the right as the UMP and its allies!). Solférino called on their candidate to drop out, to prevent the victory of the FN, but the local candidate has apparently preferred to play the game until the end and will maintain her candidacy, having already said in the past that she saw no major differences between Maréchal-Le Pen and the UMP incumbent. , Il n’y a qu’une seule voie d’avenir. Great job once again, you summed up everything worth noting of these races (I’m sure you could have written more, but synthesis is sometimes useful too). Dans la 9e circonscription du Val-de-Marne, les guerres fratricides à gauche ont tourné à l'avantage de la candidate PS Isabelle Santiago, dont le camp a revendiqué l'élection avec environ 58% des suffrages, face à Sandra Regol, secrétaire nationale adjointe d'Europe Ecologie-Les Verts. A local mayor running as a centre-right dissident won 14.7%, the obligatory PS dissident against EELV took 12.8%. Ailleurs, le parti présidentiel n’a pas non plus brillé. Learn how your comment data is processed. While the right appears marginally more demobilized, both PS and UMP kept their core electorate and the UMP did not lose out all that much to demoralization. This brief overview of major results is thus fairly complete, but also quite incomplete… Full results can be found here. However, the appearance of a fairly strong result hides, in general, some fairly weak performances. The NC’s other members are all fairly independent on their own (though not independent from the UMP!) Le parti LREM ne remettait qu’un siège en jeu lors ces élections: celui de Nadia Hai, nommée ministre déléguée à la Ville, et qui a démissionné de son poste à la 11e circonscription des Yvelines. With that bad spell soon behind them, the UMP will soon be able to move on to the upcoming leadership war – the much talked about Copé-Fillon showdown. Source In the Val-de-Marne-10, the MRC’s Jean-Luc Laurent narrowly outpolled (33-30.3) the FG incumbent Pierre Gosnat. Should the left beware of a 1967/2007 repeat, the other way around? Election legislative vs Elections legislatives - Schrijf 2 zoekwoorden en klik op FIGHT. PRV 1.24% (+1.24%) winning 0 seats Since your predictions seem pretty encouraging, I can only hope you are right. In the Bouches-du-Rhône-1, Valérie Boyer, another UMP mayoral contender and major figure of the. Thomas can count on the FG (5.3%) and EELV (2.8%) but can NKM count on the good graces of the FN (11.4%)? Good luck to the centre in whatever they do, because God knows they’ll need all the luck they can get. This year, she will not owe her likely reelection on June 17 solely to her huge margin in Saint-Pierre-des-Corps. google_ad_height = 600; Bucchini is well known for his opposition to nationalists, but he could prove receptive to the calls of beating the right. A similar phenomenon happened in 1967, when the left was able to turn a mediocre first round into a successful second round. Ipsos did one of its pre-election polls which broke down voters and non-voters based on demographic and other categories. All three qualified for the runoff, but Chassain has announced that he is dropping out and endorsing the FN candidate in order to defeat Vauzelle. In the 7th, Brard, the former mayor of Montreuil, won 32.8% against 36.7% for Razzy Hammadi (PS), who is backed by Dominique Voynet, the EELV mayor of Montreuil who defeated Brard in 2008. It is only useful and interesting if you group the labels into broader left and right categories, like I have done. EELV backed by the PS took 16.7% while the FN won 14.1%. EELV 19 In metropolitan France, the MoDem qualified in Calvados-2 (20.7% for the former UDF deputy Rodolphe Thomas, which is a rather poor result for him) and Loire-1 (25.6% for Gilles Artigues, a former UDF deputy defeated in 2007, backed by the UMP). PS 291 In the Nord-8, Slimane Tir (EELV backed by the PS) won only 21% against 36.5% for the PS dissident Dominique Baert (who is the incumbent). The current leadership and big thinkers of the UMP seem to believe that the reconquista of power lies with the far-right/populist right rather than the centre/centre-right (whether or not this is true is another matter), and, with things as they currently stand, the UMP will invariably tack hard to the right, in part a desperate bid to quickly kill off any Mariniste/frontiste momentum. The PS won 25.2% against 23.5% for Bompard. Why do all the maps of the first round I’ve seen (especially tv5.org’s) show 3-4 non-UMP deputies elected at the first round, but all the result lists say there were only 2? Frédéric Cuvillier and Delphine Batho won by the first round, as did Bernard Cazeneuve in Manche-4 – with no less than 55.4%! The centrist party’s two main incumbents: party leader François Bayrou and his close ally and neighbor Jean Lassalle placed second behind the PS, and Bayrou faces a difficult triangulaire with the PS and UMP in which he is likely to be defeated. Change ), You are commenting using your Twitter account. We will come back to the results for the main FN star candidates a bit later on. The FN is qualified for 32 theoretical triangulaires and I believe a total of 61 candidates of the FN are qualified for the runoff, in a good number of cases at the UMP’s expense. /* RawalHost336x280 */ With 23.6% – an extremely poor showing – he trails the PS by over ten points (34.9%) and is only narrowly ahead of the UMP (21.7%) which is qualified for the runoff as well. Weird successes in places which nobody has ever heard of won’t save the party, especially with the likely defeat of its leaders. google_ad_width = 336; The first round of legislative elections were held in France on June 10, 2012; with a second round being held on June 17, 2012. Regionalists and nationalists 0.56% (+0.05%) winning 0 seats All 577 seats in the French National Assembly (Assemblée nationale), the lower house of France’s Parliament, were up for reelection. Sorry, your blog cannot share posts by email. 2007 had already broken the unfortunate record with only 60% turnout in the first round. These are, basically, the only good results for the MoDem. Cherpion can be pleased that the FN is not qualified for the runoff, but if he is to defeat Lang (and it would be a fairly major defeat for Lang, who would also like the presidency of the National Assembly), he must win the bulk of the 17.4% who voted for the FN. Their performances against these PS dissidents were mixed. Bookmark the permalink. DVG (PS dissidents) 18 With Fillon, who had a strong personal footing here, out of the picture, Le Foll will handily replace Fillon as this constituency’s high-profile member. Vote Right. Your Vote TV5.org and other websites using the AFP’s interactive map all give 4 ‘DVD’ or NC elected though the official statistics from the Ministry gives us only 2 ‘DVD’ or NC elected. Michel Vauzelle, the president of the PACA region and incumbent in the Bouches-du-Rhône-16 won 38% in the first round, against 29% for the FN and only 22.6% for the UMP’s Roland Chassain, who he had defeated in 2007. She should win easily on June 17. Presidential Majority (PS+DVG+PRG+EELV) 39.87% (+8.6%) winning 25 seats Parliamentary Right (UMP+DVD+NC+PRV+AC) 34.67% (-10.91%) winning 11 seats. The Republicans and aligned parties obtained 136 seats, making them the largest opposition bloc, according to the Interior Ministry. Figures not all that different from those seen on May 6, and it would be reasonable to assume, on average, that anywhere between 50 and 60% of first round FN voters will vote for the UMP in the runoff. In the event that no candidate has been elected by the first round, a runoff is held a week later opposing all candidates who won over 12.5% of registered voters (potential votes), or, in the case that only one or no candidate has won over 12.5% of registered voters, the top two candidates. This is certainly a race to follow, like the race next door in Morbihan-1, where the villepiniste mayor of Vannes and incumbent member François Goulard is in much difficulty after a poor result (32.6%) in the first round.